CheckPoint: Confirmation Bias

? Discuss how confirmation bias can influence perceptions and how some beliefs can actually generate their own confirmation in 200 to 300 words. Provide relevant examples to support your explanation

Confirmation bias can influence perceptions about not only what has already occurred but also our predictions of what may yet occur. Some of these perceptions and predictions, also known as confirmation bias can also generate their own confirmations (Myers, 2012, p. 72). The phenomenon of confirmation bias starts with overconfidence. Overconfidence can originate in a lack of knowledge regarding a topic or task. If one were to ask an overconfident person if they were good at some task or operation in which the overconfident person had no prior experience or expertise, the overconfident person may answer with a resounding affirmation that they would be good at said task. However, this overconfidence may only be born of an ignorance of what the task or operation really requires to be performed successfully. Sometimes it is our memories that lead us astray into a false confidence. Remembering times when we were "almost" right perhaps (Myers, 2012, p. 75).

We can often remember what we want to remember rather than what actually occurred. We often hear what we wanted to hear. Sometimes we even tell ourselves there were reasons for some of our less conscious actions. Intellectual deceit is a phenomenon that fortifies and cultivates the occurrence of confirmation bias. Myers (2012) states "The "intellectual conceit" evident in judgments of past knowledge ("I knew it all along") extends to estimates of current knowledge and predictions of future behavior. We know we've messed up in the past. But we have more positive expectations for our future performance in meeting deadlines, managing relationships, following an exercise routine,

and so forth (p. 72). Another statement by Myers (2012) is "The construction of positive memories brightens our recollections" (p. 77). I believe this tendency helps us not only to develop enough intellectual deceit to become overconfident which leads to bias, but also this inherent psychosocial, psychological trait or habit causes us to recall our previous thoughts, intentions, and actions in such a way that sheds favorable enough light on them for us to then perceive if not generate some sort of confirmation of our bias.

Reference:

Myers, D. G. (2012).Exploring social psychology(6th ed.). Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill.