### MAT 101 Module 4

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Prior to the November, 2000 presidential election George W. Bush had a comfortable lead in the polls. But on election day Bush ended up losing the popular vote by a small margin (although winning the electoral vote). Read the following article below written before the election:

Larry Kudlow (2000) The Weak-End of Polling, Retrived February 27, 2008, from http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow071800.html

Write a three to five page paper answering the following questions:

A. Why do you think different polls got such a wide range of estimates of Bush's lead in the polls, ranging from a 12% lead to a 4% lead?

B. What sampling techniques would you use to get the most accurate estimate of which candidate would win on election day?

Make sure to use information from the background materials in your answers. DO NOT just rely on the Kudlow article.

Case assignment expectations:

Use information from the modular background readings as well as any good quality resource you can find. Please cite all sources and provide a reference list at the end of your paper.

The following items will be assessed in particular:

1. Your ability to identify situations when sampling is appropriate.

2. Your ability to draw the proper inferences about the population after the sample has been evaluated.

3. Your ability to describe the process of selecting and evaluating a sample.

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