Develop a four month moving average forecast for Wallace Garden Supply and compute the MADin Mathematics by Euler
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5-13: Develop a four month moving average forecast for Wallace Garden Supply and compute the MAD. A three month moving average forecast was developed in the section on moving averages in Table 5.3
5-15: Data collected on the yearly demand for 50 lb. bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Develop a three year moving average to forecast sales. Then estimate demand again with a weighted moving average in which sales in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and sales in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1. Which method do you think is best?
YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER
(1,000s of bags)
5-16: Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer in Problem 5-15, using any computer software.
5-19: Sales of Cool-Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past 5 years
The sales manager had predicted, before the business started, that year 1s sales would be 410 air conditioners. Using exponential smoothing with a weight ? = 0.30, develop forecasts for years 2 through 6.
5-25: Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at R. Lowenthal Supply Co. over the past 13 months are as follows:
SALES ($1,000) MONTH SALES ($1,000) MONTH
11 January 14 August
14 February 17 September
16 March 12 October
10 April 14 November
15 May 16 December
17 June 11 January
(a) Using a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February.
(b) Using a weighted moving average with three periods, determine a demand for vacuum cleaners for February.
(c) Evaluate the accuracy of each of these methods.
(d) What other factors might R. Lowenthal consider in forecasting sales?